According to a BBC report, most countries are worried about the American consumer. As Trump’s promised tariffs shift in scope, some are worried the US may be heading for a trade war. With so much rapid change, taking a wait-and-see stance—Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum’s personal approach—may be wisest.

Trump originally promised 60% tariffs on China during his re-election campaign, but only issued a 10% tax instead. Tariffs against Canada and Mexico have been declared and then postponed until March 4, 2025. 

Should the tariffs go into effect, here’s how they could help—or hurt—American consumers and businesses.

Tariffs could impact Americans almost immediately. Most retailers will likely pass the cost of the tariff on to the consumer—a 25% tariff on a product from Mexico or Canada that had cost $100 will likely cause the consumer price to rise to at least $125.

Many American businesses import Mexican tequila like Don Julio or Jose Cuervo, and American tequila aficionados have come to appreciate the high-quality Mexican liquor. Retailers say they will still offer these tequila products, but they will become significantly more expensive to cover the cost of tariffs; some are pulling orders or trying to negotiate these rates to avoid raising prices for American consumers.

In a time of rising inflation, any increase in prices will likely be felt by consumers right away.

Tariffs will impact American businesses, too. 

Business owners say that they are having a challenging time making plans as the government rapidly shifts without oversight from Congress, promising one thing and delivering another.

A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports coming from Canada, Mexico, and China is set to go into effect on March 12. Auto manufacturers in Detroit, Michigan, routinely cross the border 7 or 8 times as a car is built, sourcing materials from both countries. Today, the US auto industry is a collaborative effort with Canadian partners; in fact, a majority of Michigan residents view Canada as an economic partner and neighbor.

These tariffs will impact car manufacturers’ ability to build a car at the same price point. As it becomes more expensive to build cars, that price increase is likely to get passed on to the buyer.

The auto industry isn’t the only economic sector that will be impacted by tariffs, but it will be one of the first to feel its effects. Detroit could become something of a bellwether, indicating how these tariffs could affect other cities and industries across the US.

But it’s not only large manufacturers that will feel the pain. Small- and medium-sized businesses are likely to be hit even harder. Since they’re operating with less capital on smaller margins, any increase in raw materials could spell disaster for a small business. Additionally, if a small business sells primarily to a US audience, they might find that audience shrinking as tariffs increase the cost of their goods for American consumers.

These global trade models have developed over decades. Any change would be a shock to the system, but the rapidity with which the Trump administration has elected to upend these well-established systems is unprecedented. The chaos, uncertainty, and confusion will likely lead to some painful experiences for consumers and businesses alike. 

It’s unclear how tariffs could be helpful to Americans in the short-term. In the long-term, some hope that they could lead to a reinvigoration of American manufacturing or have other positive effects.

Joe Rogan, a supporter of the president, argues Trump is trying to increase the value of the dollar with tariffs. He says tariffs will decrease the deficit and allow for a refinancing of America.

Trump’s theory is that we’ve been too beholden to other countries, that we import more than we export because American-made products are too expensive. The global market isn’t hungry for American goods because they can get similar things elsewhere for half the price. Trump argues that high tariffs on American goods have created an unfair trade-imbalance.

As of Friday 14, 2025, Trump says he’s aiming for a reciprocal tariff plan. If he’s able to negotiate an even rate with other nations, he could even the playing field.

Another pro-tariff voice comes from one of the authors of Project 2025, Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of American Compass. Cass argues that free trade doesn’t work: “We are not taking into account what it costs to produce overseas, and our contribution to child labor and poor wages in factories to produce products at a lower cost in China.”

Cass believes those jobs should go to Americans.

While an increase in manufacturing work could be good for US workers, it’s unlikely to drive down consumer prices. Because the US has minimum wage requirements, American-made goods are likely to be more expensive if they’re produced in the US.

Cass further states that free trade has led the US to develop a dependence on foreign countries. Others say that global collaboration has been a tide that has lifted all boats, raising the standard of living around the world.

The Trump administration is betting that tariffs will pay off in the long run, setting the stage for long-term stability. Trump says he plans to stabilize the economy through deregulation, lowering corporate taxes, and bringing manufacturing back home.

He also states that making it easier to drill for oil and gas on our own soil will lead to less reliance on foreign oil, greater autonomy, and a stronger economy.

In the short-term, American businesses and consumers should expect a bumpy ride. How the president’s plans play out in the long term is anyone’s guess.

In times of uncertainty, it’s important to remain calm and focus on the facts. It’s unclear if the proposed tariffs will go into effect or if they will be postponed again. When it comes to tariffs, I’m reminded of that Britishism from the World War II era: Keep Calm and Carry On.

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