After 15 years in HR, Mikki Forbes, Co-Founder and COO of Forbes Consulting, LLC, now partners with executives as a Fractional HR leader to design people systems that work — systems that reduce turnover, strengthen leadership pipelines, and align everyday behavior with business goals.

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Turnover rarely surprises leaders in January. The truth is that the signs have shown up weeks earlier, but most teams are too busy sprinting toward year-end goals. December brings heavier workloads, shifting priorities, personal stress, and a period of reflection. Employees start weighing their future and comparing their current environment with what they believe they might find elsewhere. By the time Q1 arrives, the resignation letters that land on a manager’s desk are often the final step in a decision that formed during December.

Gallup reports that nearly half of employees worldwide are either monitoring the job market or actively seeking another position, and disengaged employees are the most likely to leave their role. When an already disengaged employee is pushed through the intensity of December, the gap between staying and leaving becomes much smaller.

Based on more than 123,000 exit interviews, Work Institute’s 2025 Retention Report shows that most voluntary turnover stems from preventable factors. Career growth, work-life balance, and manager behavior continue to drive decisions to quit. Qualtrics adds another layer by showing that only about two-thirds of employees intend to stay with their current employer. This means a large portion of the workforce is already uncertain in December.

Nothing about this mix is random. December may not cause turnover, but it reveals where cracks already exist. HR has a chance to notice these warning signs and intervene before Q1 resignations stack up. The challenge is knowing what to watch and how to interpret the cues with more precision than guesswork.

Employees move into the end of the year with a very different mindset. They review their accomplishments, weigh their frustrations, and judge whether the organization has met its commitments. If they have spent months feeling underutilized, overlooked, or overloaded, December magnifies that feeling.

For some employees, it becomes the point where they begin quietly detaching. That detachment often shows up in subtle ways: lower enthusiasm, reduced initiative, and less collaboration. Managers sometimes chalk it up to holiday stress, but the pattern is more strategic than seasonal.

This is where Gallup’s engagement findings matter. Disengaged employees are already at a higher risk of leaving compared to engaged peers. December demands more effort during a month when energy is already low. When pressure rises, disengagement increases. The clean-slate mindset of January then becomes the moment when employees act.

Work Institute’s long-term data shows that most people build their case to resign over time, not in a single moment. December becomes a catalyst rather than a cause because it forces employees to evaluate what is not working. If issues like workload balance or lack of career opportunities remain unresolved, the decision becomes easier. Qualtrics’ global findings on intent to stay confirm that many employees are already in an uncertain state before December begins. When one in three employees is open to leaving, December becomes the tipping point.

1. Noticeable step back in communication

Employees who plan to leave often begin reducing communication weeks before giving notice. You may see slower responses, shorter updates, or less willingness to collaborate. Managers sometimes assume the employee is simply busy, but withdrawal is one of the clearest early indicators.

2. Decline in discretionary effort

Engaged employees still push through December. They may be tired, but they do not disengage from responsibilities. When someone starts doing only the minimum required or stops volunteering for tasks they normally handle without prompting, that is a signal worth investigating.

3. A drop in attendance or schedule consistency

A sudden increase in late arrivals, unscheduled absences, or vague requests for time away often reflects deeper frustration. Burnout shows up physically before it shows up verbally. HR should watch for this shift, especially among high performers who normally maintain strong attendance.

4. A shift in tone toward peers or supervisors

December pressure can strain relationships, but employees who have already decided they are done communicate differently. They show detachment, irritation, or emotional distance. Stress can create similar patterns, but the difference is consistency. When the tone changes and stays changed, HR should pay attention.

5. Lower participation in team activities

When people are planning their exit, they pull away from the group. They stop engaging in conversations about future projects. They show up physically but not mentally. They appear uninterested in anything beyond what they must complete. This is not a temporary mood. It is preparation.

Organizations do not need complex models to understand retention risk. Basic analysis of existing data is enough to spot patterns. HR should review:

1. Performance trends over the last three months

Look for employees whose performance was stable or positive through Q3 but declined in Q4. A sudden shift matters. It may signal burnout or loss of motivation, both of which predict turnover.

2. Workload or schedule imbalance

Excessive hours, chronic understaffing, or job design issues show up clearly in timekeeping or project tracking systems. Employees who consistently carry more than their peers face a higher risk of quitting, especially in December when demands spike.

3. Exit interview patterns

Work Institute’s analysis shows that exit interviews are predictive when reviewed as a whole. If your organization sees repeated themes linking turnover to workload, supervisor behavior, or lack of growth, those same themes likely exist in employees who are still there.

4. Engagement or pulse survey responses

Qualtrics’ research demonstrates the connection between experience, expectations, and intent to stay. Employees who score low on trust in leadership, recognition, or future development have a much greater risk of leaving. HR should compare these responses with the behavioral cues managers are reporting.

5. Internal mobility and development data

If high performers have not moved roles, received stretch assignments, or been included in development pathways, they are more likely to leave. Stagnation is one of the most reliable predictors of turnover.

Monitoring signs is necessary, but action prevents Q1 turnover from rising. HR should take clear steps in December, even if resources are limited.

1. Encourage managers to ensure workloads are balanced and correct obvious pressure points

If a team or role is carrying an unrealistic load, encourage leaders to fix it now. Nothing communicates commitment to employee well-being more than reducing strain during the month it matters most.

2. Hold brief stay conversations

A fifteen-minute conversation can change the trajectory of an employee who is quietly considering leaving. Ask what is working, what is wearing them down, and what would help them stay.

3. Equip managers with specific December support strategies

Managers should acknowledge the stress of the season, reinforce appreciation, and offer clarity on what absolutely must get done. Employees handle pressure better when expectations are clear.

4. Watch recognition levels

Recognition often drops in December because everyone is busy. That is exactly why it matters. Employees who feel unseen during peak stress are more likely to consider a change in January.

5. Clarify development commitments for Q1

If employees see a path forward, they stay. HR should encourage managers to outline the growth conversation that will take place early in the new year.

Turnover in January rarely comes out of nowhere. The early signs appear in December, and they appear consistently. Gallup’s engagement findings, Work Institute’s retention data, and Qualtrics intent-to-stay insights all point to the same conclusion. Most employees who resign in Q1 began detaching long before their resignation date. HR can help managers see the patterns and give them tools to intervene while it still matters.

The information contained in this site is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as legal advice on any subject matter.